Happy New Year, and welcome to market prediction season! At this time of year, every Wall Street firm and business magazine puts out their predictions for the stock market’s upcoming year. After much analysis and secret sauce, they come up with a final number for the value of the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 indexes on December 31, 2018.
Should we believe them? No. Is it worth reading the articles about these predictions? No.
There is a certain amount of hubris exhibited by these firms, believing they can predict the future. They like to believe that intellect and analysis gives them a level of control, and with this control, they can foretell what will happen in the future. What they are really doing is guessing. No matter how many calculations are done, it is still a guess about the unknowable future.
At Andrew Marshall Financial, LLC we believe the future of the markets cannot be predicted. The possibilities of what could happen today, let alone any time in the next year, are just too broad. It is a waste of time and energy trying to make these predictions. Do yourself a favor and don’t read these types of articles.
Furthermore, there is no reason to base an investment decision on someone’s guess about the future. It is far better to invest using a system that has been proven to work. A system that rather than predicting, establishes expected returns and is diversified using the best in class fund for each asset.